The National Oceanography Centre at COP26

The ocean plays a fundamental role in mitigating climate change by serving as a major heat and carbon sink. The ocean also suffers the effects of climate change, as evidenced by changes in temperature, currents, acidity and sea level. As concerns about climate change increase, the interrelationship between the ocean, biodiversity, carbon absorption and climate change must be recognised, understood, and incorporated into global government policies.

About 25% of carbon dioxide produced by humans is absorbed by the ocean. The ocean and land provide half each of the natural sinks for carbon dioxide that would otherwise end up in the atmosphere. The deep ocean is by far the largest store of carbon on Earth. Achieving ‘net zero’ by 2050 relies on ensuring natural and other carbon sinks can offset reduced emissions, especially for activities like shipping and steel production that will take longer to decarbonise. Protecting and restoring ocean ecosystems could have twin benefits of safeguarding vital carbon sinks and protecting marine biodiversity, which are also under threat from climate change and other human activities. Therefore, the ocean is an essential part of the solution.

Problem: We cannot be sure about the level of human CO₂ emissions at which the ocean will no longer be able to absorb anthropogenic carbon. We cannot tell if its ability to absorb carbon varies either spatially or over time.

Solution: Through scientific research, and continuous ocean sensing with advanced technology, we can understand and track the behaviour of ocean carbon sinks better. This includes their efficiency, variability and stability. We can also protect, restore and enhance the natural carbon sinks and use innovative engineering solutions to capture, and use or store carbon that would otherwise go into the atmosphere. Research is important to better understand the links between climate change and the health of vital marine ecosystems and to provide the scientific evidence to support nature-based solutions.

Over 90% of excess heat is absorbed by the ocean, causing water to expand and sea level to rise. It rises even further due to the melting of ice caps. Rising average sea levels on their own - even without any changes in storms and extreme weather events – mean flooding will happen more often. Around one billion people will be affected by annual flooding by 2100. There is large uncertainty about the rate of melting of ice sheets and so about the rate of future sea level rise.

Problem: We do not measure sea level rise consistently and land level movement needs to be measured too. Therefore, the amount global sea level will rise in the coming years is based only on estimates. These range from 0.3m to 1.35m by 2100.

Solution: To provide information to check satellite measurements and to obtain information satellites are much less suited to, we need to invest in more accurate tide gauges at the coast and on oceanic islands by upgrading old systems. The data then needs to be analysed for better predictions of means and extreme sea levels, and to assess the risks from combined sea level rise and land level movement. These data can be shared worldwide to create a ‘digital ocean’, which offers greater intelligence to allow us all increased understanding and ability to drive change.

Global underwater ocean monitoring is integral to any solutions and financing this necessary infrastructure needs a new business model.

Systematic sustained ocean observations will allow the world to understand the changing climate and inform solutions to some of the biggest challenges facing us all. You cannot manage what you cannot measure. Systematic, globally-distributed, continuous ocean sensing is an integral part of implementing climate and ocean health solutions.

Problem: The ocean is vast and hard to measure. Satellites see only the surface skin, so underwater (‘in situ’) ocean sensing is essential to detect and track changes happening at depths up to 6km and more. The volume of ocean observations needs to increase, however in the 60% of the ocean outside exclusive Economic Zones, observations are mainly supported by short term research projects, which is not systematic and leaves gaps of coverage in space and time. Coastal Least Developed Countries (LDC) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have important contributions to make to a truly global system but have limited capacity.

Solution: The Global Ocean Observing System for sensing Essential Ocean and Climate Variables is the base of a value chain of openly accessible data and information. It should be viewed as a global information infrastructure and be financed with suitable business models appropriate to an infrastructure rather than relying so heavily on ad hoc short-term research projects. Integral to national commitments to climate and ocean actions, should be commitments to finance reasonable national shares of the global ocean monitoring necessary to track climate change impacts, and to enable access and participation of LDCs and SIDS in this global effort.

Ocean research and monitoring are vital to understanding climate change, variability, the impacts on people, the health of vital marine ecosystems, and developing climate mitigation solutions, such as generation of renewable energy, carbon capture and storage, restoring natural carbon sinks, and increasing resilience to climate impacts through improved extreme weather forecasting.

Problem: Ocean and climate science need research ships because, although new ocean sensing technologies are being developed, there are many things only a ship can do. A large oceanographic research vessel can emit over 6,000 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per year – but at the same time we need more data not less, because the ocean is already under-sampled and is rapidly changing.

Solution: Invest in new technologies that can massively increase coverage of continuous global, underwater ocean monitoring but without necessarily having to increase the number of research ships. Commit and plan now for the next generation of research ships built in the decade 2030–2040 to be Zero Emissions Vessels, taking early advantage of developments in ship-design, green fuels, and shore infrastructures needed to decarbonise shipping more generally.