Extreme flooding, heatwaves, droughts and storms in the UK and across Europe have substantial socioeconomic impacts and can result in loss of life. One of the most likely causes of disruptive changes to weather and climate in the UK is rapid Arctic warming and loss of sea ice. Current climate models however underestimate the observed warming and decline of Arctic sea ice, and therefore also the impacts of these changes, likely because they lack or poorly represent key physical processes. 

The aim of CANARI is to advance understanding of the impacts on the UK arising from climate variability and change in the Arctic-North Atlantic region, with a focus on extreme weather and UK shelf seas, and the potential for rapid, disruptive change. 

Towards this aim NOC is developing new high-resolution regional ocean models of the Arctic, North Atlantic and North-West European shelf, capable of better resolving key physical processes. Multiple mid- to end-of-century simulations with these models will be used to diagnose the drivers of future changes in Arctic ocean circulation, the influence that this may have within the wider North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere system and the subsequent impact on UK weather, sea level and shelf sea circulation patterns. 

CANARI brings together expertise from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), National Oceanography Centre (NOC), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), British Geological Survey (BGS), Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM), National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) and UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH). The UK MetOffice are project partners.

Aim
  • Advance understanding and quantification of regional Arctic-North Atlantic climate change and its impacts on the UK, with particular focus on inland flooding, drought, heatwaves, extreme winds, and the Northwest European shelf seas.
  • Advance understanding and quantification of the atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric, and coupled processes that could result in further rapid climate change in the Arctic, and of the pathways via which Arctic change could influence the North Atlantic and the UK.
  • Provide the UK research community with leading-edge numerical simulations, analysis tools and collaboration opportunities to facilitate world-class research on climate change and its impacts.
  • Engage with government departments and agencies, NGOs, and industry users to assess risks and inform climate adaptation and resilience building.
CANARI