Rapid Arctic Change

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the Earth’s climate system and its unique sea ice environment and ecosystems provide resources and a way of life to Indigenous and local Arctic communities. The Arctic, however, is rapidly changing, threatening our global climate, weather and biodiversity.

Warming in the Arctic is occurring up to four times faster than the global average, driving rapid losses of sea ice, glaciers and permafrost. The Arctic could be sea ice free in the summer by the middle of this century. These changes have profound implications, not only for the local ecosystem and the health and livelihoods of the Indigenous and local communities that call the Arctic home, but for every person on our planet.

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Get in touch with NOC's Arctic Lead, Dr Jo Hopkins arctic at noc.ac.uk.

NOC in the Arctic

NOC is a world-leader in ocean modelling and climate, biodiversity and ecosystems, marine geohazards, remote and in-situ sensors, marine autonomy and digital technologies. We have been delivering high-impact Arctic research for decades.

In collaboration with diverse and international partners, we aim to leverage our multi-disciplinary science and technology expertise to deliver multi-platform, multi-sensor, and multi-season field programmes – with a focus on under-ice exploration – and harness the power of our ocean models and digital tools to provide critical new knowledge for the 5th International Polar Year.

We seek to work alongside Arctic communities to facilitate research that is co-designed with those most impacted by Arctic change.

Download NOC in the Arctic pdf

Arctic Research Themes

Our ability to integrate observational, modelling and digital approaches in one of the world’s most challenging environments, will help us address knowledge and capability gaps across six themes.(Click on the image to find out more)

Ice-Free Arctic and Global Climate

As Arctic sea ice, ice sheets and permafrost are lost, the ocean, atmosphere, and land are becoming more tightly linked. What happens in the Arctic influences the large-scale ocean and atmosphere systems at lower latitudes and the processes that regulate global climate stability and extremes. In this theme, we are looking to address the following questions:

  • How close are we to an ice-free Arctic?
  • How will Arctic Ocean circulation and mixing change as ice is lost?
  • Will an ice-free Arctic reshape Earth's climate trajectory and push the planet toward a global tipping point?

The combination of world-leading global and regional ocean-ice-atmosphere models, autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV), and observational capabilities such as satellites, drones and radar systems means that NOC is uniquely placed to improve our understanding of the climate risks posed by Arctic sea ice loss.

Extreme Events and Hazards

Arctic warming is fuelling increasingly frequent and severe storms, extreme waves and drifting ice-hazards. At the coast communities are already threatened by flooding and erosion, and the risks from landslides and tsunamis. At the sea-floor, the stability of frozen methane stores is decreasing, raising the risk of sudden greenhouse gas release. Our ability to predict where multiple hazards converge into 'risk hotspots' is insufficient. We will look to resolve the following challenges:

  • How is Arctic change fuelling extreme ocean and weather conditions within and beyond the Arctic?
  • Where are the risk hotspots, when will they emerge and what threats are posed to people, infrastructure and ecosystems?
  • How will a melting Arctic re-map the world's coastlines?

By combining world-class modelling with an array of observations made from the coast, remote sensing, ships, moorings and autonomous underwater vehicles, NOC innovatively delivers new knowledge and technologies that support safe maritime operations, resilience of coastal communities and marine industry, and improved future sea level and hazard risk assessments.

Arctic Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Arctic change is predicted to disrupt Arctic biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides, including carbon storage and food security. We are already observing loss of sea ice habitats, changing nutrient availability impacting the growth of marine life and carbon storage, and climate-driven ecosystem shifts. This theme will explore:

  • What is the present-day state of Arctic biodiversity?
  • How will Arctic change reshape how the ecosystem functions, from the sea-surface to sea-floor?
  • What are the global consequences of Arctic ecosystem change?

By integrating sensing, sampling and imagery technologies, ecosystem modelling, and AI-driven analysis, NOC offers a comprehensive suite of capabilities to map, understand and predict Arctic ecosystem change and its global impacts. In this way we can inform adaptive, sustainable management and conservation efforts and resilience planning.

Human Stressors and Arctic Pollution

As human activity in the Arctic increases, so too does the threat from pollution, plastics, noise and sea-bed disturbance. The effect of these stressors on water quality, sea surface to seafloor habitats, wildlife migrations, underwater communication and human health is unknown. The theme will answer the following:

  • How are plastic, noise, and sea-bed disturbances affecting Arctic habitats?
  • Do these pressures and sources of pollution overlap with important wildlife corridors?
  • Where do human stressors and climate change intersect to threaten Arctic ecosystem services?

NOC combines world-leading expertise on plastics sampling, a range of acoustic and other seafloor survey technologies and modelling tools. These capabilities can be applied to understand the sources of pollutants and disturbances in the Arctic and assess the environmental and ecosystem consequences. This helps inform environmental impact assessments, policy development, regulatory guidance, and conservation and management efforts.

Societal Impacts and Adaptation to Arctic Change

As climate change accelerates and industrial activities grow in the Arctic, communities – particularly Indigenous and coastal populations that rely on the Arctic’s sea ice and diverse ecosystem services for food, transport and communication – face increasing risks to their health, livelihoods, and cultural heritage. Through engagement, co-creation and capacity building this theme asks:

  • What are the risks to Arctic communities and marine ecosystem services from accelerating climate change and expansion of ocean economy activities?
  • How can we meaningfully engage to co-create projects that help strengthen the capacity of Arctic communities to adapt to Arctic change?
  • How can marine observations and modelling help identify areas of high risk, and support adaptive responses for Arctic societies?

Our experience of engaging with multiple partners, co-designing and co-delivering research with local communities, ensures we are well-placed to provide complementary knowledge to that existing in local communities and governing bodies, to support adaptive resilience to Arctic change.

Pioneering Technologies for Arctic Ocean Science

Understanding and predicting rapid change in the remote Arctic Ocean, with its freezing temperatures and challenging sea ice and weather conditions, requires the development and integration of multiple observing platforms, including physical, chemical, and biological sensors, as well as remote sensing, numerical modelling and digital tools. NOC offers pioneering technology solutions to meet these needs:

Marine Autonomy

The NOC is pioneering cutting-edge autonomous underwater vehicles designed to operate reliably in the harshest polar conditions. We are advancing the navigation capabilities, endurance and reliability of our gliders and long-range Autosubs so that we can explore and collect unique data from under Arctic sea-ice and make observations throughout the winter months. These remote locations and inaccessible times of the year are the least observed and understood.

Sensors and Samplers

NOC develops next-generation sensors tailored for polar use, including miniaturised sensors for nutrients and carbon, and samplers for environmental DNA. They can be mounted on autonomous underwater vehicles or long-term moorings. Alongside imaging and acoustic instruments, they enable high-resolution observations of Arctic biodiversity and ecosystems across multiple seasons.

Ocean Modelling and Remote Sensing

NOC develops suites of world-leading ocean-atmosphere-ice, wave and biogeochemical models, on local and global scales. They simulate present-day Arctic Ocean changes and make projections 10 to 100 years into the future, helping us understand how, where, why and when the Arctic’s climate and ecosystem are changing and what the impacts will be.

NOC pioneers the development and use of remote sensing, particularly altimetry and radar from which high-resolution currents, winds and sea surface heights can be obtained.

Technology schematic

Arctic projects

Projects that we’re leading or collaborating on:

International Polar Year

As the attention of policy makers and governments worldwide focuses on the Arctic, the need for innovative, multi-disciplinary marine science and technology, co-designed and delivered with Indigenous and local Arctic communities, to observe, understand and predict Arctic change and its impacts, has never been greater. The 5th International Polar Year 2032/2033 provides a crucial and timely platform from which real progress in understanding and action can be made.

In 2025 NOC hosted a workshop on UK Arctic Ocean and Coastal Research to the International Polar Year 2032/2033, bringing together individuals from more than 30 different Higher Education Institutes, Research Centres, government agencies and NGOs from across the UK. Knowledge gaps, ambitions and UK capabilities were identified.

Learn more here:
Download booklet – Arctic Science and innovation for a changing world
Download Arctic Science and innovation for a changing world

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Support our Arctic Science and Innovation

Changes in the Arctic environment are already affecting every person in the UK and across our planet. With your support, we can further our internationally renowned science to understand some of the biggest threats to society and help our ocean to thrive.

To learn more about the vital role of philanthropy in Arctic science and how you can support our work, contact Holly.Evans at noc.ac.uk.

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