The UK’s tsunami risk from earthquakes, submarine landslides and volcano flank collapses: from model scenarios to risk mitigation

Tsunamis rarely reach the UK’s shores, but when they do, their impacts have been catastrophic. Historical accounts and geological data describe wave heights of 3 meters in Cornwall, generated by a massive earthquake offshore Portugal in 1755, and a 21-meter tsunami that hit the Shetlands and caused 3-6 meter run-up along the vulnerable eastern Scottish shoreline due to a submarine landslide on the continental shelf in the Norwegian Sea around 8,000 years ago. How vulnerable is the UK’s current critical infrastructure along the coastline, such as ports and (nuclear) power stations, to plausible tsunamis triggered by submarine earthquakes, landslides or volcano flank collapses in the Atlantic? How might offshore energy infrastructure in the North Sea be affected? This project will use computer modelling to generate plausible scenarios in the North Sea and Atlantic, and assess the flooding risks to critical infrastructure along the UK’s shores. In collaboration with emergency planners and other stakeholders, these scenarios will be used to evaluate current early warning mechanisms, flood defenses, emergency planning and policies. Tangible outputs may include recommended risk mitigation actions and policies.