weather

New research set to improve vital hurricane forecasts

Hurricane Ian caused flood losses estimated at between $8–18bn. Image: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • New research shows a 40% rise in hurricane rainfall rate over land for a 1°C rise in tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures.
  • In recent years, there have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States landfalling hurricanes.

Scientist Spotlight – Extreme weather science with Dr Kiko Calafat

Dr Kiko Calafat

Extreme sea-level events are an ever-growing threat to coastal communities across our planet due to rising seas. NOC scientists are at the cutting edge of research into why our sea-levels are rising, the likelihood of resulting extreme events and cutting-edge solutions to protect our coastlines.

Atmospheric warming has major implications for ocean circulation in the Mediterranean Sea

Changes in the Mediterranean: orange arrows are winter sea surface temperature, red arrows are air temperature, dark blue arrows are sea-air temperature difference (numbers denote differences, 1986–2020 minus 1951–1985). Map of atmospheric pressure changes; orange indicates unusually high pressure.

A leading scientist at the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) has discovered that changes taking place in the way the ocean and atmosphere interact in the Mediterranean Sea are threatening the normal connection between the upper and deep ocean layers in this region.

New study on climate change set to improve future weather models

Change in AMOC strength over time: Irminger Sea interior water density represents strength of AMOC current system, periods of high (green), low (blue), error margin (grey) and trend (black dotted line) shows no detectable decline in AMOC since 1950.

Leading scientists from the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) have discovered that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is not showing a detectable decline as previous studies from other scientists have suggested. A decline in the AMOC would contribute to extreme weather and climate decline in North America and Europe.

Breakthrough in identifying what drives ocean overturning

In a departure from the prevailing scientific view, a new international study has revealed that a deep-ocean process playing a key role in regulating Earth’s climate is primarily driven by cooling waters west of Europe.

Marine robots could help improve forecasts of European weather in the future

On Saturday 20th October the Royal Research Ship (RRS) James Cook departed on an expedition during which a new automated system of collecting climate data will be trialed. If successful, the new technology could help improve long-range European weather forecasts in the future.

NOC scientists discover potential oceanic triggers for strong El Niño events

A new understanding of the timing and development of strong El Niño events has resulted from recent research by scientists at the National Oceanography Centre (NOC). This pioneering work was enabled by new analysis of results from a very high-resolution global ocean model.

Creating ‘virtual storms’ to help design coastal defences and coastal flood warning systems

A project has ‘kicked-off’ in London that will create artificial storms to help predict worst-case scenarios for coastal flooding. Using computer models to make real storms more extreme, this National Oceanography Centre (NOC) led project will help inform the planning of coastal defences and emergency response.

Storms fuel blooms of marine plants

Storm

Autumn storms help the ocean absorb atmospheric CO2 and stimulate marine life by ‘stirring-up’ the nutrients that feed blooms of tiny marine plants.

Highest tides for 18.6 years

‘Supermoon’ seen from Canary Wharf 2014

Many places along the UK coastline will experience the highest tide for 18.6 years between the 19th and 30th of September, as a result of the co-incidence of a series of astronomical factors. Watch a video of Professor Kevin Horsburgh explaining this using a football and a tennis ball.