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Scientists at the UK’s National Oceanography Centre (NOC) are to lead critical research into forecasting a major climate tipping point – the potential collapse of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre.
Through more than £11 million in funding, from the UK’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA), NOC will lead the development of novel and innovative new ways to detect early warning signs of a change in the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre.
Sitting just south of Greenland and Iceland, the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is a key component of the global ocean’s circulation system, transporting heat around the planet, helping to regulate temperatures in Europe and North America.
Its collapse could have a major global impact on our weather, food and security, but existing climate models and ocean observations are too limited to accurately forecast a tipping point which could signal its collapse.
The funding, part of ARIA’s, five-year, £81-million Forecasting Tipping Points programme, covers eight projects, three of which are being led by NOC’s world-leading scientists and are worth more than £7 million.
One, Aerial Experimental Remote sensing of Ocean Salinity, heaT, Advection and Thermohaline Shifts (AEROSTATS), is an ambitious project exploring the use of novel earth observation platforms, such as airships or high-altitude pseudo-satellites. The second, Full Ocean Fibre, will unlock the potential of existing international undersea communications cables to become a vast sensor network, starting in the North Atlantic.
The third project is called Subpolar gyre Observations, models and artificial intelligence to Resolve Tipping points and provide Early warning Detection (SORTED). This will use artificial intelligence (AI) and models to push the limits of existing ocean observations and to transform our ability to detect the early warning signs of Subpolar Gyre collapse, including identifying gaps and uncertainty in data.
Project descriptions and videos from our Principal Investigators
“This transformative funding from ARIA comes at a critical moment for ocean and climate science, helping to fulfil an urgent need to address gaps in our understanding of Subpolar North Atlantic tipping points,” says NOC Chief Scientist Professor Penny Holliday.
“NOC will be at the forefront of this ambitious programme developing pioneering innovative approaches – from AI-driven modelling to revolutionary ocean observation technologies – to bridge those knowledge gaps.
“By harnessing our world-leading science and pioneering technology, we will lead and collaborate on multiple projects to enhance our ability to detect early warning signs and better understand the future of our changing ocean.”
NOC is supporting a further five Subpolar Gyre focused projects, led by other organisations and institutes, with more than £4 million in funding. These are POLEMIX, led by the University of Southampton, TIMBER, led by the University of East Anglia, PROMOTE, led by the University of Reading, VERIFY, led by the University of Leeds and GRAIL, led by British Antarctic Survey.
These projects cover a wide range of innovation and collaboration, from a new proof-of-concept observing system using autonomous profiling floats to predicting tipping points in marine ecosystems and their consequences and opportunities for the UK, especially for the fishing industry.
They will also involve improving earth system models, creating digital twins to test early warning systems and using robotics to gather data in Antarctic regions.
Dive Deeper – NOC-led projects in detail
Full Ocean Fibre, with partner National Physical Laboratory
The deep ocean is one of the least observed environments on Earth, with vast areas entirely unmonitored. Recent technological developments can convert undersea cables (used for telecommunications and forming the backbone of the internet) into many seafloor sensors measuring ocean conditions over thousands of kilometres. Full Ocean Fibre will develop the acoustic and fingerprinting techniques needed to identify ocean processes and provide an unprecedented view of the deep North Atlantic from existing cables. This project sets the scene for a next generation ocean and climate observing network enabled by the global network of subsea cables.
Project lead Dr Carl Spingys – “Full Ocean Fibre will develop the acoustic and fingerprinting techniques needed to identify ocean processes and provide an unprecedented view of the deep North Atlantic from existing cables,” says . “This project sets the scene for a next-generation ocean and climate observing network enabled by the global network of subsea cables.”
AEROSTATS, with partners NOVELTIS, Radarmetrics and Pixalytics
AEROSTATS is an ambitious airborne earth observation (EO) project focused on observing fine-scale atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere exchanges in the Greenland sea ice margins. It aims to develop a high-resolution ocean current and wind imagery and demonstrate year-round monitoring of currents, winds, ocean colour, salinity, and sea surface temperature using airborne platforms such as airships, high-altitude pseudo satellites or drones. These cost-effective, long-term monitoring capabilities will support the development of an early warning system for potential Subpolar Gyre convection shutdowns.
Project lead Professor Christine Gommenginger – “This is a truly bold airborne earth observation project. Our vision is cost-effective, long-term monitoring capabilities that support early warning of a potential Subpolar Gyre shutdown. With partners across diverse sectors, we’re a cross-disciplinary group bridging technology, climate science and a commitment to tackling climate challenges through innovation.”
SORTED, with partners University of Southampton and University of Bordeaux
Circulation in the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is thought to be moving towards a collapse, but climate models and ocean observations are too limited to accurately forecast these tipping points. SORTED will fundamentally improve our ability to detect and monitor the early warning signs of Subpolar Gyre collapse by pushing the spatiotemporal capabilities of existing observational records using a novel combination of AI and tipping point knowledge from models. SORTED will further identify critical gaps and uncertainties in our ocean datasets and make recommendations on the observations still needed to build robust early warning systems for a potential Subpolar Gyre collapse.
Project lead Dr Alejandra Sanchez-Franks – “Circulation in the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is thought to be moving towards a collapse but, climate models and ocean observations are too limited to accurately forecast these tipping points. We will be using a novel combination of AI and tipping point knowledge from models to push the spatiotemporal limitations of existing observational records and to underpin the robust early warning systems needed for a potential Subpolar Gyre collapse.”
Learn more – projects in which NOC is a partner
POLEMIX – This project led by the University of Southampton will develop and deploy a proof-of-concept observing system using autonomous profiling floats to continuously monitor turbulence and mixing across the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). By integrating these novel mixing data into ocean and climate models through advanced state estimation and digital twin frameworks, the project will enhance our mechanistic understanding of freshwater mixing, deep convection, and more accurately predict the SPG’s tipping point.
TiMBER – This project led by the University of East Anglia aims to understand and predict tipping points in marine ecosystems, and their consequences and opportunities for the UK, especially for the fishing industry. Building on the UK’s strong modelling capability, TiMBER will develop an Ocean Systems Model (OSM) and apply it, together with new and existing data from ARIA and AI methods, to assess tipping point risks in marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. TiMBER will also identify early warning indicators for sentinel marine species and recommend strategies for cost-effective monitoring networks. By helping the UK anticipate, prepare for and respond to marine changes, TiMBER will support sustainable and resilient fisheries.
PROMOTE – As tipping points (TPs) have not been observed, the only way to simulate plausible tipping points is to use physically based earth system models. The PROMOTE project, led by the University of Reading, will deliver a step-change in the fidelity with which a leading earth system model (the UK Earth System Model; UKESM) represents Greenland ice sheet and Subpolar Gyre processes. It will also collate a catalogue of simulated tipping points as a community resource for the ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points programme. PROMOTE will also inform the design of focused observational arrays based on robust physical characterisation of tipping points.
Read about the PROMOTE project
VERIFY – Led by the University of Leeds and University College London, project VERIFY will provide testing for early warning systems by using known instances of past climate tipping events. We will build Digital Twins – computer simulations trained or merged with real-world data – of past Greenland ice sheet and North Atlantic subpolar gyre tipping to evaluate the performance of new technologies developed by the ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points programme. This will provide a unique opportunity to hone observational systems, physical process-based models and early warning detection algorithms against real-world realisations of tipping behaviour to build a robust and trusted early warning system.
Read about the VERIFY programme
GRAIL – Led by British Antarctic Survey (BAS), this project is focusing on the key link between the North Atlantic and Greenland Ice Sheet – melting and calving at marine glaciers. The team will capture these complex physical processes at difficult-to-access ice faces and floating ice shelves by: developing new sensors and ocean/ice/airborne platforms; deploying these in East and North West Greenland fjords; and implementing improved physics in the UK's Earth System Model. Their results will be scaled up to other fjords, then input into a prototype early warning system, which will be co-designed with Greenlandic stakeholders.
What is ARIA?
ARIA is a research and development funding agency created to unlock technological breakthroughs that benefit everyone. Created by an Act of Parliament and sponsored by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, it funds teams of scientists and engineers to pursue research at the edge of what is scientifically and technologically possible.
What is ARIA’s Tipping Points Programme?
Co-led by Programme Directors Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek, ARIA’s Forecasting Tipping Points programme looks to create an early warning system capable of equipping us with the information, understanding and time we need to accelerate proactive climate adaptation and mitigation.
Backed by £81 million over five years, the programme will unite 27 international teams in a collaborative effort to detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points. ARIA’s programme includes experts from fields like optics, nuclear physics, and photonics – many pivoting their expertise to this critical challenge – and two brand new non-profit organisations in the UK.