Location
University of Southampton

Supervisors: Kathy Gunn (UoS), Ivan Haigh (UoS), Jules Kajtar (NOC), Dafni Sifnioti (EDF, Energy Research & Development)

Contact email: K.Gunn@soton.ac.uk

Project rationale

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in decadal climate variability with impacts on sea level, regional weather patterns, and thus flooding [1]. Flooding poses a significant hazard to coastal infrastructure, including the UK’s Nuclear Power Plants. To protect key sectors, coastal defenses need to be built to withstand an extreme water event with just a 10-4 annual occurrence probability [2]. With evidence for past major instabilities and recent modelling efforts indicating potential dramatic changes, understanding the, insofar overlooked, connection between the deep AMOC and flooding is increasingly important.

Methodology

The overall goal of this project is to address fundamental questions about the causes and consequences of flooding around the UK’s coastlines over the next 100 years. The candidate will use observations and model output to examine the rate of cold-water formation in the North Atlantic, its downstream impacts on the deep portion of the AMOC, and the link with surface variability related to flooding. Specifically, the candidate will link deep ocean changes to: sea level, regional weather patterns, and coastal flooding risk. Four key questions include:

  1. To what extent is the deep portion of the AMOC attributable to sea level variability around the UK and therefore coastal flood risks?
  2. How do shifts in the deep AMOCs properties and/or strength impact regional weather patterns and the above processes?
  3. How might longer-term decadal changes impact the UK’s capability to protect coastal areas, including Nuclear Power Plants, from flooding?
  4. Can we predict downstream changes around the UK from upstream observations of the deep ocean?

The candidate will combine almost two decades (2004–2022) of observations from the RAPID array with satellite data, and high-resolution historical simulations to understand these connections over the past few decades. Then, the candidate will use forecast simulations and perturbation experiments to assess the likelihood and impact of future changes on flooding. These impacts will be considered alongside key sector needs of the UK’s Nuclear Power Plants, using the Sizewell site as a case study. The conclusions of your work will underpin our knowledge of deep ocean drivers of flooding. In this way, your work will improve capability for future flood risk management, address key sector needs, and improve policy decisions.

Background reading

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2019) Chapter 6: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks. In: H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (Eds.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Cambridge University Press.

Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR). (2018) Analysis of coastal flood hazards for nuclear sites. NS-TAST-GD-012 Annex 3 Reference Paper: ONR Expert Panel on Natural Hazards Paper No: GEN-MCGH-EP-2017-2, Sub-Panel on Meteorological and Coastal Flood Hazards, Office for Nuclear Regulation. 33pp.

FLOOD-CDT

This PhD is being advertised as part of the Centre for Doctoral Training for Resilient Flood Futures (FLOOD-CDT). Further details about FLOOD-CDT can be seen here https://flood-cdt.ac.uk. Please note, that your application will be assessed upon:

  1. Motivation and Career Aspirations;
  2. Potential & Intellectual Excellence;
  3. Suitability for specific project and
  4. Fit to FLOOD-CDT.

So please familiarise yourselves with FLOOD-CDT before applying. During the application process candidates will need to upload:

  • a one-page statement of your research interests in flooding and FLOOD-CDT and your rationale for your choice of project;
  • a curriculum vitae giving details of your academic record and stating your research interests;
  • name two current academic referees together with an institutional email addresses; on submission of your online application your referees will be automatically emailed requesting they send a reference to us directly by email;
  • academic transcripts and degree certificates (translated if not in English) – if you have completed both a BSc and an MSc, we require both; and
  • a IELTS/TOEFL certificate, if applicable.

Please upload all documents in PDF format. You are encouraged to contact potential supervisors by email to discuss project-specific aspects of the proposed prior to submitting your application. If you have any general questions please contact floodcdt@soton.ac.uk.

Apply

To apply for this project please click here: https://student-selfservice.soton.ac.uk/BNNRPROD/bzsksrch.P_Search. Tick programme type – Research, tick Full-time or Part-time, select Academic year – ‘2025/26, Faculty Environmental and Life Sciences’, search text – ‘PhD Ocean & Earth Science (FLOOD CDT)’.

In Section 2 of the application form you should insert the name of the project and supervisor(s) you are interested in applying for. If you have any problems please contact: fels-pgr-apply@soton.ac.uk.