Landmark Global Environment Outlook 7 Report launches at UNEA-7

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has unveiled ‘The Global Environment Outlook, Seventh Edition: A Future We Choose (GEO-7)’ at the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA-7). 

This flagship report is designed to inform strategic decision-making across governments, industries, and civil society and represents the most comprehensive scientific assessment to date focusing on the current state and future trends of the global environment. 

The National Oceanography Centre (NOC)’s Dr Catia Domingues contributed to the report’s chapter on ‘Oceans and Coasts’ – providing vital insights into the ocean, which is considered the Earth’s greatest climate regulator. 

The GEO-7 report reinforces concern that the ocean is reaching critical limits, which will have long-lasting impact on the planet we know today. 

Catia, a senior researcher at NOC, said: “The ocean is undergoing unprecedented physical and biogeochemical transformation. 

“The GEO-7 report emphasises the urgent need to take action. Rapid emission reduction is essential to decrease changes and to limit the resulting impact. This will help to safeguard marine life, stabilise the climate and protect human livelihoods.” 

Key findings on ‘Ocean and Coasts’ include:

• The ocean warming is accelerating, causing marine heatwaves and long-term change.

  The rate of surface warming has quadrupled over the past four decades

  Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent

  All ocean basins are warming, with the Arctic and semi-enclosed seas (such as the North Sea and the Mediterranean) warming nearly twice as fast as the global average

• The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) appears to be weakening, which could have far-reaching consequences.

  The AMOC was stable for around 8,000 years but has weakened since the late 19th century

  Continued monitoring is critical to improve predictions and reduce risk

• Ocean deoxygenation is a growing and long-lasting threat which suffocates marine life and undermines ecosystem resilience

  Global oxygen concentration is declining, driven by ocean warming

  More than 700 coastal areas now suffer from low-oxygen conditions. Once depleted, oxygen recovery is slow

• Ocean acidification is accelerating fast, particularly in the Arctic and coastal regions

  The ocean has absorbed around a quarter of human carbon dioxide emissions, making it more acidic with acidity increasing by about 30% since the 1750s – this marks the fastest rise in 26,000 years

• Sea-level rise is increasing, threatening coasts and coastal communities around the world

  The 20th century sea level rise is unprecedented in at least 3,000 years, with rapid acceleration since the 1960s-70s

  Sea-level rise will persist for millennia, making it effectively irreversible under current emission conditions

  Even at 1.5°C climate increase, previous ‘once per century’ coastal floods are expected to become annual events by 2100 in many regions.

The GEO-7 report brings together the voices of 287 experts from 82 countries, with contributions from more than 800 reviewers worldwide. This includes scientists, industry leaders and, for the first time, Indigenous and local people. 

While it highlights environmental and climate challenges, it has also outlined practical pathways for action and explores future scenarios to consider and illustrate the benefits of taking proactive action. 

Professor John Siddorn, Chief Executive at NOC, said: “GEO-7 is a call to action. The report recognises that the health of our ocean is directly related to the health of our planet and our people. It also highlights that environmental challenges will impact economies and communities alike across the globe. However, the GEO-7 also provides valuable insights into resilience, stewardship and provides an opportunity to live in harmony with the environment. 

“This combination of knowledge, experience and scientific data is a vital step forward to enable us to tackle global issues collectively, as we address the most urgent environmental challenges of our time.” 

Read the report: https://www.unep.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-7 

NOTES TO EDITORS 
About the GEO-7 modelling methodology

The GEO-7 transformation pathways methodology constructs new narratives to illustrate alternative transformations of the five systems and uses a suite of models to quantify these narratives as well as current trends. These models cover key elements of the five systems, global environmental crises and their related goals, and the environmental and socioeconomic implications. The models are linked to account for critical interdependencies and feedback between the component models. Results are compared with established scenario databases and existing literature to address uncertainty and consistency with the broader scenario community. While the methodology provides valuable insights, it is limited in terms of scenario scope, issue coverage and the level of aggregation.

These scenarios are based on a framework that includes well-established and validated models extensively used by other global environmental assessments, including those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the International Resource Panel (IRP).

About the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

UNEP is the leading global voice on the environment. It provides leadership and encourages partnership in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations.