A new study of regional climate data has highlighted a need for a region-specific focus on emerging climate change signals to underpin more effective local adaptation policies.
The study, co-authored by scientists from the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and published in Frontiers in Science, highlights the increasing intensity of monsoons, altered storm tracks and polar precipitation shifts.
It says these trends, experienced regionally, underscore the critical need for region-specific data to inform effective climate policies and protect impacted communities from escalating risks.
The authors also call for a concerted, interdisciplinary effort in the scientific and policy communities to bridge the gaps in current climate modeling.
The study, led by the University of Exeter and involving 12 other organisations alongside NOC, looked at results from multiple new studies to provide a clearer picture of regional climate change impacts.
“In 2023, extreme weather events impacted communities across every inhabited continent, causing major flooding, droughts and wildfires, but different regions felt these impacts in different ways,” says co-author Dr Jeremy Grist, a senior research Fellow at NOC.
“Worldwide changes, such as increases in global mean temperature, often dominate discussions of the climate crisis,” adds Prof Simon Josey, also a co-author at NOC. “However, a detailed understanding of these regional impacts of a warming world is crucial for protecting different communities from the escalating risks in their region.”
Regional impacts and rising risks
The study revealed a range of emerging climate change signals at the local level that are likely to occur this century, spanning from the equator to the poles.
The tropics and subtropics
In tropical and subtropical regions, dramatic changes in precipitation are expected to significantly alter monsoon intensity, leading to substantial societal impacts. Monsoon systems, which are critical for agriculture, directly affect billions of people.
Approximately 60% of the world’s population resides in the northern hemisphere monsoon regions, where the summer monsoon season can deliver up to 80% of the annual rainfall.
As aerosol emissions decrease and greenhouse gases rise, monsoons are predicted to become more intense, potentially resulting in floods, landslides, and reduced agricultural yields.
Mid-latitudes
In the mid-latitudes, high-resolution climate models indicate a potential strengthening of storm tracks into northwestern Europe, increasing the risk of extreme weather.
"Increased monsoon precipitation and storm track rainfall variability can lead to droughts in some regions and high winds and flooding in others, resulting in devastating impacts on agriculture, essential infrastructure, and the overall health of communities,” said co-author Dr Vikki Thompson, from the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut in the Netherlands.
Polar regions
In polar regions, projections show that a greater fraction of precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow, potentially accelerating ice melt and amplifying sea-level rise. This transition endangers coastal communities worldwide.
Moreover, changes at the poles are not confined to those regions. Polar amplification, which refers to the phenomenon in which the poles warm faster than the rest of the planet, can influence weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, potentially altering storm tracks.
"We are constantly advancing our understanding of climate change, particularly its regional aspects, to inform policies aimed at adaptation,” says first author Prof Matthew Collins of the University of Exeter.
“While global aspects remain important, humanity will feel the impact of climate change at the regional level. This is where infrastructure planning, extreme event preparedness, and management of public health and food security need to up-to-date climate science."
Enhanced climate models can improve regional adaptation and resilience
The study calls for a concerted, interdisciplinary effort in the scientific and policy communities to bridge the gaps in climate modeling. Higher-resolution data, integration of machine learning techniques and new models will improve the simulation of complex climate phenomena at both global and regional levels.
Dr Grist says, “Some important future trends, such as strengthening of the storm track into northwestern Europe, only clearly emerge when advanced models, employing a very high-resolution ocean component, are used.”
"Without advanced climate modeling and monitoring systems, policymakers and local communities are left navigating climate risks with insufficient information, which can lead to inadequate or misdirected efforts." adds co-author Dr Matt Priestley, from the University of Exeter.
The article is part of the Frontiers in Science multimedia article hub “Regional climate change impacts”. The hub features an editorial and two viewpoints from other eminent experts: Prof David Frame (University of Canterbury, New Zealand), Swadhin Kumar Behera (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan), and Prof Shang-Ping Xie (University of California San Diego, USA)—as well as an explainer with infographics.