Models agree on 21st Century ocean carbon uptake - problem solved?

Wednesday 19 June 2019 - 11:00 to 12:00
NOC Southampton - Node Room (074/02) (Waterfront Campus).
Paul Halloran

Confidence in climate projections comes from agreement across models in how they respond to a given future socioeconomic pathway. The assessment of this confidence is undertaken for and presented within the IPCC reports. The most recent IPCC report highlighted a step-change in agreement on the strength of the ocean carbon-cycle feedbacks between models, and identified that the spread of model ocean-carbon cycle feedbacks was a fraction of that seen across the land carbon-cycle feedbacks. If we are assessing uncertainty in the right way, the sensible conclusion from this is that the ocean carbon cycle is no longer a major source of uncertainty and our efforts should be focused elsewhere. I will however present evidence that suggests that the whole multi-model pack may be biased, and explore where this bias may be coming from, concluding that multi-model agreement is perhaps not the right metric to consider as physical climate models evolve into earth system models by building in more empirically-based components.

Seminar category: 
POC seminars