The Impact of an Extreme UK Winter on the North Atlantic and Implications for Seasonal Forecasts

Wednesday 15 February 2017 - 15:00 to 16:00
NOC Southampton - Henry Charnock Lecture Theatre (Waterfront Campus).
Dr Jeremy Grist

The boreal winter of 2013-14 brought extreme weather conditions to both North America and northwest Europe. The north
American winter was notable for temperatures that were extremely low both for specific episodes and in terms of the winter-long average.

In the United Kingdom, December, January and February were the wettest in over 100 years.
High levels of precipitation were accompanied by high wind speeds, and when
both intensity and duration of the winter cyclones are taken into account, it was the stormiest on record for the UK and Ireland.  

The winters in Europe and North America were linked by air-sea interaction proceses over the subpolar North Atlantic. In the
first part of the talk an analysis of these processes and their impact of the ocean will be presented. This analysis included a prediction that a cold
SST anomaly would reemerge in late 2014. However a more general question relates to what extent that a prediction of ocean reemergence could help improve
seasonal foreceasts of European Winters. To address this, the impact of the reemergence of a subsursface temperature anomaly has been simulated in two versions of
the Met Office seasonal prediction system GLOSEA5. In the second part of this talk I will present some of the on-going analysis of this model experiment. 

Seminar category: 
POC seminars