El Niño Bust to Boom in 2014-16

Thursday 12 January 2017 - 15:00 to 16:00
NOC Southampton - Henry Charnock Lecture Theatre (Waterfront Campus).
Prof Michael J. McPhaden (NOAA/PMEL)

An El Niño of surprising intensity developed in 2015-16, affecting
patterns of weather variability worldwide. The event rivalled the 1997-98
El Niño, the strongest on record, in its magnitude and impacts. It was
preceded in early 2014 by basin scale warming that was widely expected to
develop into a full-fledged El Niño, but which unexpectedly died. This
presentation will describe the oceanic and atmospheric processes that gave
rise to conditions in the tropical Pacific during 2014-16, how well they
were predicted by various forecasting centers, and how the failed 2014 El
Niño helped set the stage for the subsequent major El Niño in 2015-16.

Seminar category: 
POC seminars