Charlotte Lyddon, 09/12/2020 2pm
Quantifying the impacts of uncertainties in coastal hazard modelling
This research applies coupled regional models to address coastal flood risk management needs in hyper-tidal estuaries. The work aims to understand how tide-surge-wind-waves combine to increase flood and wave hazard at the coast, using the Severn Estuary, southwest England as an extreme example.
Numerical modelling tools can be used to predict the individual contributions of physical factors to total water levels and forms a key component of flood hazard assessment. However uncertainty can be introduced into model predictions, and can lead to a wide spread of results within which exposure or impacts could occur, cause errors in the definition of critical thresholds, or presents challenges to emergency response planners. Sources of uncertainty in flood hazard assessments are identified and quantified here to inform sustainable coastal management strategies, which require confidence in the knowledge of any possible changes to flood and wave hazard.