Dr Kevin Horsburgh

Role/area of expertise

Head of the Marine Physics and Ocean Climate (MPOC) research group

Location & Contact Details

Telephone Extension: 
(External 0151 7954835)
Contact Email: 
Office / Desk Location: 
Floor 1, Joseph Proudman Building

Dr Kevin Horsburgh

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I am head of the Marine Physics and Ocean Climate (MPOC) research group. I also lead NOC’s professional partnership with the Environment Agency (EA) and the Met Office for the UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting service which provides operational coastal flood forecasts. My personal research is in the field of storm surge modelling, coastal flood forecasting and the statistical analysis of sea level extremes.

Research Interests

 Storm surges and tropical cyclone surges

Sea level change and mechanisms

Extreme sea levels and extreme value statistics

Improving operational numerical models for coastal flood forecasting

Ensemble forecasts and quantification of uncertainty in forecasting systems

Data assimilation in ocean models

Coupled climate-impacts models (waves, surges and inundation)

Ocean and shelf sea physics


Developing Enhanced impact MOdels for integration with Next generation NWP and climate outputs (DEMON). Funded under the NERC Storm Risk Mitigation research programme call (NE/I005366/1)

Adaptation and Resilience of the Coastal Energy Supply (ARCoES). Funded under the EPSRC Adaptation and Resilience in a Changing Climate (ARCC) programme

eSurge (http://www.storm-surge.info/); ESA Data User Element project to use Earth Observation within an integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting

Flood Risk Management Research Consortium Phase 2 (FRMRC2). Artificial intelligence techniques for real-time forecasting of coastal flooding; adjoint 3D models of storm surge processes in shallow seas

Arctic RP project “Will climate change in the Arctic increase the landslide-tsunami risk to the UK?” (NE/K00008X/1)

Membership of Committees and Boards

Chair of IOC/WMO JCOMM Expert Team on Waves and Coastal Hazards (ETWCH)

Leader of JCOMM Science Advisory Team for project “Enhancing Forecasting Capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges”

 Project Steering Group for the IOC/WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP)

 Scientific Steering Committee for the North Sea Regional Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) programme

 Board of Directors and Chair of the Scientific Steering Committee for the Lloyds Register Educational Trust (LRET) programme, “Global networking to improve prediction of extreme maritime events”

Latest Publications for Dr Kevin Horsburgh

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Williams, Joanne; Horsburgh, Kevin; Williams, Jane; Proctor, Robert. 2016 Tide and skew surge independence: new insights for flood risk. Geophysical Research Letters. 43 (12). 6410-6417 10.1002/2016GL069522

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Sibley, Andrew; Cox, Dave; Long, David; Tappin, David; Horsburgh, Kevin. 2016 Meteorologically generated tsunami-like waves in the North Sea on 1/2 July 2015 and 28 May 2008. Weather, 71 (3). 68-74. 10.1002/wea.2696

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Hibbert, A.; Royston, S,; Horsburgh, K.; Leach, H.; Hisscott, A.. 2015 An empirical approach to improving tidal predictions using recent real-time tide gauge data. Journal of Operational Oceanography, 8 (1). 40-51. 10.1080/1755876X.2015.1014641

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Haigh, Ivan D.; Wadey, Matthew P.; Gallop, Shari L; Loehr, Heiko; Nicholls, Robert J.; Horsburgh, Kevin; Brown, Jennifer M.; Bradshaw, Elizabeth. 2015 A user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915–2014. Scientific Data, 2. 150021. 10.1038/sdata.2015.21

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Breivik, Øyvind; Swail, Val; Babanin, Alexander V.; Horsburgh, Kevin. 2015 The international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the coastal hazards symposium. Ocean Dynamics, 65 (5). 761-771. 10.1007/s10236-015-0827-9

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Wadey, Matthew; Haigh, I.D.; Nicholls , R.J.; Brown, Jennifer; Horsburgh, Kevin; Carroll, B.; Gallop, S.; Mason, T.; Bradshaw, Elizabeth. 2015 A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK. Frontiers in Marine Science, 2. 84. 10.3389/fmars.2015.00084

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Maskell, John; Horsburgh, Kevin; Lewis, Matthew; Bates, Paul. 2014 Investigating River–Surge Interaction in Idealised Estuaries. Journal of Coastal Research, 294. 248-259. 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00221.1

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Yasuda, Tomohiro; Nakajo, Sota; Kim, SooYoul; Mase, Hajime; Mori, Nobuhito; Horsburgh, Kevin. 2014 Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection. Coastal Engineering, 83. 65-71. 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.003

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Lewis, Matt; Horsburgh, Kevin; Bates, Paul. 2014 Bay of Bengal cyclone extreme water level estimate uncertainty. Natural Hazards, 72 (2). 983-996. 10.1007/s11069-014-1046-2

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Lewis, M.; Schumann, G.; Bates, P.; Horsburgh, K.. 2013 Understanding the variability of an extreme storm tide along a coastline. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 123. 19-25. 10.1016/j.ecss.2013.02.009

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Lewis, Matt; Bates, Paul; Horsburgh, Kevin; Neal, Jeff; Schumann, Guy. 2013 A storm surge inundation model of the northern Bay of Bengal using publicly available data. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (671). 358-369. 10.1002/qj.2040

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Smith, P.J.; Beven, K.J.; Horsburgh, K.. 2013 Data-based mechanistic modelling of tidally affected river reaches for flood warning purposes: an example on the River Dee, UK. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (671). 340-349. 10.1002/qj.1926

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Royston, S.; Lawry, J.; Horsburgh, K.. 2013 A linguistic decision tree approach to predicting storm surge. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 215. 90-111. 10.1016/j.fss.2012.10.001

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Wilson, Chris; Horsburgh, Kevin J.; Williams, Jane; Flowerdew, Jonathan; Zanna, Laure. 2013 Tide-surge adjoint modeling: A new technique to understand forecast uncertainty. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118 (10). 5092-5108. 10.1002/jgrc.20364

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Tappin, David R.; Sibley, Andrew; Horsburgh, Kevin; Daubord, Camille; Cox, Dave; Long, Dave. 2013 The English Channel ‘tsunami’ of 27 June 2011 : a probable meteorological source. Weather, 68 (6). 144-152. 10.1002/wea.2061

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Batstone, Crispian; Lawless, Mark; Tawn, Jonathan; Horsburgh, Kevin; Blackman, David; McMillan, Alastair; Worth, David; Laeger, Stefan; Hunt, Tim. 2013 A UK best-practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines. Ocean Engineering, 71. 28-39. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.02.003

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Maskell, John; Horsburgh, Kevin; Plater, Andy J.. 2013 Investigating enhanced atmospheric–sea surface coupling and interactions in the Irish Sea. Continental Shelf Research, 53. 30-39. 10.1016/j.csr.2012.11.018

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Pickering, M.D.; Wells, N.C.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Green, J.A.M.. 2012 The impact of future sea-level rise on the European Shelf tides. Continental Shelf Research, 35. 1-15. 10.1016/j.csr.2011.11.011

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Royston, S.J; Horsburgh, K.J.; Lawry, J.. 2012 Application of rule based methods to predicting storm surge. Continental Shelf Research, 37. 79-91. 10.1016/j.csr.2012.02.018

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Lewis, Matt; Horsburgh, Kevin; Bates, Paul; Smith, Ros. 2011 Quantifying the uncertainty in future coastal flood risk estimates for the UK. Journal of Coastal Research, 27 (5). 870-881. 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00147.1

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