Belief, reason, and the projections of global warming by climate models
Many people accept that the threat of climate change is real and, furthermore, take an interest in the underlying science. There are, however, those who remain unconvinced by the projections of climate warming to the end of this century, as made by Earth System Models. Why is it apparently so easy to be a sceptic? I will venture into the world of psychology, and how we form beliefs, in order to answer this question. Topics will include vitamin donuts, Carlsberg lager, the golden goal in football and anthills, amongst others! I will conclude by appealing to reason, stating the case for the trustworthiness of the ESM projections.