Climate impacts
NOC scientists have been measuring changes in ocean physics, chemistry and biology for decades at our precursor institutes and are in the forefront of analysing the consequences and predicting future impacts. Our measurements show both natural variation and anthropogenic changes in ocean characteristics, over entire ocean basins. These include rising temperatures in the North Atlantic, increasing ocean acidification, and an improved understanding of natural processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño/La Niña events.
For the UK the most serious climate impacts are likely to arise from rising sea levels and storm-surge events rather than the actual background warming, at least over the next century. Large parts of the country lie close to present-day sea level and are vulnerable to flooding. NOC scientists work with government, the Met Office, the insurance industry and local authorities to assess and predict likely future scenarios.
Global warming may lead to changes in ocean circulation. NW Europe is warmed by the current that crosses the Atlantic, popularly known as the Gulf Stream. Some forecasts suggest that in the future the current could be reduced or switch off entirely, as northern waters warm and affect the density gradients that draw the current across the ocean. For the UK, this could mean a Scandinavian climate, and offset much of the warming that we would otherwise expect to see. But is it really possible? NOC scientists have been leading the RAPID and RAPID-WATCH programmes precisely to determine if this sort of big-switch off is really possible. So far, the results suggest that we are not likely to see a major shut-down of the North Atlantic circulation, though a reduction in the strength of the flow is possible.
NOC doesn’t just look at local climate – our modellers and observational oceanographers make measurements and prediction throughout the global ocean, helping decision makers to prepare for future possibilities.
Useful links
UK Marine Climate Change Impacts Programme: http://www.mccip.org.uk/
RAPID-WATCH: http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/rapid/rw/
