Dr Sarah Wakelin

Marine Systems Modelling
+44 (0)151 795 4809

Research interests

Using numerical models (POLCOMS, NEMO and ERSEM) to explore the relationship between the open ocean and continental shelf in the northeast Atlantic. For example, simulating the fate of carbon taken up by the ocean from the atmosphere and exchanges of nutrients and carbon between the shelf and the open ocean. Another area of interest is the response of the ocean-shelf system to climate change scenarios and anthropogenic drivers.


Current projects

Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry (SSB)

Marine Ecosystem Research Programme (MERP)

NOC Marine Systems Modelling - Shelf and coastal impacts group

Resolving Climate Impacts of shelf and CoastaL sea Ecosystems (ReCICLE)

Land Ocean Carbon TransfEr (LOCATE)


Recent projects

National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO)

Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment (MEECE)

Regional Ecosystem and Biogeochemical Impacts of Ocean Acidification – a Modelling Study (ROAM, the UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme)

Committee and Board Memberships: 

Member of the NCOF Working Groups on marine ecosystem modelling and shelf sea climate and impacts.



Sadykova, Dinara; Scott, Beth E.; De Dominicis, Michela; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Sadykov, Alexander; Wolf, Judith. 2017 Bayesian joint models with INLA exploring marine mobile predator-prey and competitor species habitat overlap. Ecology and Evolution, 7 (14). 5212-5226.10.1002/ece3.3081
Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah. 2016 Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas. Progress in Oceanography, 140. 91-115.10.1016/j.pocean.2015.11.004
Saux Picart, S.; Allen, J. I.; Butenschön, M.; Artioli, Y.; de Mora, L.; Wakelin, S.; Holt, J.. 2015 What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea? Climatic Change, 132 (1). 111-125.10.1007/s10584-014-1071-x
Wakelin, Sarah L.; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme ; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason T.. 2015 Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf. Journal of Marine Systems, 152. 51-63.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.07.006
Chust, Guillem; Icarus Allen, J.; Bopp, Laurent; Schrum, Corinna; Holt, Jason; Tsiaras, Kostas; Zavatarelli, Marco; Chifflet, Marina; Cannaby, Heather; Dadou, Isabelle; Daewel, Ute; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Machu, Eric; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Butenschon, Momme; Artioli, Yuri; Petihakis, George; Smith, Chris; Garçon, Veronique; Goubanova, Katerina; Le Vu, Briac; Fach, Bettina A.; Salihoglu, Baris; Clementi, Emanuela; Irigoien, Xabier. 2014 Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean. Global Change Biology, 20 (7). 2124-2139.10.1111/gcb.12562
Holt, J.; Schrum, C.; Cannaby, H.; Daewel, U.; Allen, I.; Artioli, Y.; Bopp, L.; Butenschon, M.; Fach, B.A.; Harle, J.; Pushpadas, D.; Salihoglu, B.; Wakelin, S.. 2014 Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems. Biogeosciences Discussions, 11 (2). 1909-1975.10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014
Artioli, Yuri; Blackford, Jeremy C.; Butenschön, Momme; Holt, Jason T.; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Thomas, Helmuth; Borges, Alberto V.; Allen, J. Icarus. 2012 The carbonate system in the North Sea: Sensitivity and model validation. Journal of Marine Systems, 102-104. 1-13.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.04.006
Wakelin, S.L.; Holt, J.T.; Blackford, J.C.; Allen, J.I.; Butenschön, M.; Artioli, Y.. 2012 Modeling the carbon fluxes of the northwest European continental shelf: Validation and budgets. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117 (C5). C05020.10.1029/2011JC007402
Holt, Jason; Hughes, Sarah; Hopkins, Joanne; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Holliday, N. Penny; Dye, Stephen; González-Pola, César; Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre; Mork, Kjell Arne; Nolan, Glen; Proctor, Roger; Read, Jane; Shammon, Theresa; Sherwin, Toby; Smyth, Tim; Tattersall, Graham; Ward, Ben; Wiltshire, Karen Helen. 2012 Multi-decadal variability and trends in the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: A model-data synthesis. Progress in Oceanography, 106. 96-117.10.1016/j.pocean.2012.08.001
Shutler, J. D.; Smyth, T. J.; Saux-Picart, S.; Wakelin, S. L.; Hyder, P.; Orekhov, P.; Grant, M. G.; Tilstone, G. H.; Allen, G. I.. 2011 Evaluating the ability of a hydrodynamic ecosystem model to capture inter- and intra-annual spatial characteristics of chlorophyll-a in the north east Atlantic. Journal of Marine Systems, 88 (2). 169-182.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.03.013
Lenhart, Hermann-J.; Mills, David K.; Baretta-Bekker, Hanneke; van Leeuwen, Sonja M.; van der Molen, Johan; Baretta, Job W.; Blaas, Meinte; Desmit, Xavier; Kuhn, Wilfried; Lacroix, Geneviève; Los, Hans J.; Menesguen, Alain; Neves, Ramiro; Proctor, Roger; Ruardij, Piet P.; Skogen, Morten D.; Vanhoutte-Brunier, Alice; Villars, Monique T.; Wakelin, Sarah L.. 2010 Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of the North Sea. Journal of Marine Systems, 81 (1-2). 148-170.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.014
Holt, J.; Wakelin, S.; Lowe, J.; Tinker, J.. 2010 The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrography of the northwest European continental shelf. Progress in Oceanography, 86 (3-4). 361-379.10.1016/j.pocean.2010.05.003
Huthnance, J.M.; Holt, J.T.; Wakelin, S.L.. 2009 Deep ocean exchange with west-European shelf seas. Ocean Science, 5. 621-634.10.5194/os-5-621-2009
Wakelin, S.; Holt, J.; Proctor, R.; Smyth, T. J.; Blackford, J.; Allen, I.; Ashworth, M. I.. 2007 Modelling the inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes and budgets on the northwest European continental shelf. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 9 (08864). 1, pp.
Woodworth, P. L.; Flather, R. A.; Williams, J. A.; Wakelin, S. L.; Jevrejeva, S.. 2007 The dependence of UK extreme sea levels and storm surges on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Continental Shelf Research, 27 (7). 935-946.10.1016/j.csr.2006.12.007
Holt, M.; Hyder, P.; Siddorn, J.; O'Dae, E.; Mahdon, R.; Proctor, R.; Holt, J.; Wakelin, S.; Allen, I. 2007 Evaluating the performance of real-time forecast models of the NW European shelf seas. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 9 (05734). 1, pp.
Hyder, P.; Wakelin, S. L.; Holt, M. W.; Osborne, J. P.; Siddorn, J. R.; O'Dea, E. J.. 2006 Towards improved real-time forecast modelling for the NW European shelf seas. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 87 (36 (Supplement)), OS26N-10.
Tsimplis, M.N.; Woolf, D.K.; Osborn, T.J.; Wakelin, S.; Wolf, J.; Flather, R.; Shaw, A.G.P.; Woodworth, P.; Challenor, P.; Blackman, D.; Pert, F.; Yan, Z.; Jevrejeva, S.. 2005 Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 363 (1831). 1329-1358.10.1098/rsta.2005.1571

Book section

Schrum, Corinna; Lowe, Jason; Meier, H.E. Markus; Grabemann, Iris; Holt, Jason; Mathis, Moritz; Pohlmann, Thomas; Skogen, Morten D.; Sterl, Andreas; Wakelin, Sarah. 2016 Projected change - North Sea. In: Quante, Markus ; Colijn , Franciscus , (eds.)North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment. Cham, Springer International, 175-218, 528pp. (Regional Climate Studies).


Zavatarelli, M.; Artioli, Y.; Beecham, J.; Butenschon, M.; Chifflet, M.; Christiensen, A.; Chust, G.; Daewel, U.; Holt, J.; Neuenfeldt, S.; Schrum, C.; Skogen, M.; Wakelin, S.; Allen, J.I.. 2013 Synthesis report on the comparison of WP3 and WP4 simulations: Part 2a Multiple Driver Scenarios, NE Atlantic, North Sea, Baltic Sea and Biscay. MEECE Deliverable 4.3. Plymouth, MEECE Project/Plymouth Marine Laboratory, 53pp. (UNSPECIFIED)
Wakelin, S.; Daewel, D.; Schrum, C.; Holt, J.; Butenschon, M.; Artioli, Y.; Beecham, J.; Lynam, C.; Mackinson, S.. 2013 Synthesis report for Climate Simulations Part 3: NE Atlantic / North Sea 2013 MEECE Deliverable D3.4. Plymouth, MEECE Project/Plymouth Marine Laboratory, 82pp. (UNSPECIFIED)
Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom; Pardaens, Anne; Tinker, Jonathon; Holt, Jason; Wakelin, Sarah; Milne, Glenn; Leake, James; Wolf, Judith; Horsburgh, Kevin; Reeder, Tim; Jenkins, Geoff; Ridley, Jeff; Dye, Stephen; Bradley, Sarah. 2009 UK Climate Projections Science Report: Marine and Coastal Projections. Exeter, UK, Met Office Hadley Centre, 99pp. (UNSPECIFIED)

Electronic output