Dr Jason Holt

Head of Marine Systems Modelling
Marine Systems Modelling
+44 (0)151 795 4853

I specialise in the synthesis of model and observations to develop our understanding of shelf-sea physical and coupled physical-biological systems. Particular areas of interest include model capability and accuracy; the impact of large scale variability (e.g. climate change) on shelf-sea physics and ecosystems; and transports and budgets of water, carbon and nutrients across shelf sea basins. I have worked in close collaboration with the UKMO for over 10 years on developing shelf sea models for operational oceanography and climate downscaling (e.g. UKCP09).


NERC Funded

GOcean:2D,  Ocean test cases in GungHo framework, technology Proof of Concept, PI

Marine Ecosystems Research Programme, co-PI, NOC Lead

Integrative Modelling for Shelf Seas Biogeochemistry co-PI, NOC Lead

FASTNet co-PI, NOC lead, Ocean-shelf exchange Research Programme

Next Generation Ocean Road Map, PI: Exploring options for ocean modeling in the UK for the next 10-15 years

Quantifying and Monitoring Potential Ecosystem Impacts of Geological Carbon Storage co-PI, NOC lead

Regional Ecosystem & Biogeochemical Impacts of Ocean Acidification - a modelling study, co-PI, NOC lead

Assessing health, livelihoods, ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in populous deltas, co-I

NCEO- Carbon, co-PI, POL lead: Developing observation constrained models of carbon fluxes in shelf seas

DUST-UP (UK SOLAS) co-PI, POL lead: Modelling the impact of dust on ecosystems at ocean margins

QUEST-FISH (QUEST) co-PI, POL lead: Modelling the impacts of climate change on global fisheries

Oceans 2025 POL theme leader: NERC’s core programme in marine science.

MARQUEST (QUEST) co-PI, POL lead: Developing shelf sea capability in Earth Systems Models

Global Coastal Ocean Modelling (eScience) PI: Developing the GCOMS system to collectively model all shelf seas around the globe. 

RAPID: Arctic Shelves (thematic) co-PI POL lead: Investigating the formation of dense water in Arctic shelf seas.

CASIX: (Earth Observation centre of excellence) co-PI, Science element leader: Modelling air-sea CO2 fluxes in shelf seas

Climatic versus anthropogenic control of nutrients in the Irish Sea (Standard Grand) co-PI, POL lead: Investigating climatic variability in the Irish Sea

Marine Productivity: (Thematic) Ecosystem modelling in the Irish Sea

LOIS: Integrated Modelling phase (Thematic) Linking cross-discipline modelling capability: catchment to coast

LOIS: North Sea Modelling (Thematic) Developing multi-disciplinary shelf-sea modelling capability

EU Funded

EuroBASIN co-PI: End to end ecosystems in the North Atlantic and adjacent shelf seas

MyOcean co-PI: Operational oceanography for the European arena

MEECE co-PI: Predicting the impacts of multiple drivers on physics to fish in shelf seas

ECOOP co-PI: Shelf sea operational oceanography

Ferry Box, co PI: Instrumented ferries to support marine observing systems

MERSEA co-PI: Developing shelf sea coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem operational models

OMEX I Researcher: Internal waves at the shelf-break


Committee and Board Memberships: 

National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (co-Chair)

ICES/PICES Strategic Initiative on Climate Change effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME)



Holt, Jason; Hyder, Pat; Ashworth, Mike; Harle, James; Hewitt, Helene T.; Liu, Hedong; New, Adrian L.; Pickles, Stephen; Popova, Ekaterina; Allen, J. Icarus; Siddorn, John; Wood, Richard. 2017 Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models. Geoscientific Model Development, 10. 499-523.10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017
Tinker, Jonathan; Lowe, Jason; Pardaens, Anne; Holt, Jason; Barciela, Rosa. 2016 Uncertainty in climate projections for the 21st century northwest European shelf seas. Progress in Oceanography, 148. 56-73.10.1016/j.pocean.2016.09.003
Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah. 2016 Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas. Progress in Oceanography, 140. 91-115.10.1016/j.pocean.2015.11.004
Phelps, Jack J.C.; Blackford, Jerry C.; Holt, Jason T.; Polton, Jeff A.. 2015 Modelling Large-Scale CO2 Leakages in the North Sea. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 38. 210-220.10.1016/j.ijggc.2014.10.013
Saux Picart, S.; Allen, J. I.; Butenschön, M.; Artioli, Y.; de Mora, L.; Wakelin, S.; Holt, J.. 2015 What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea? Climatic Change, 132 (1). 111-125.10.1007/s10584-014-1071-x
Wakelin, Sarah L.; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme ; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason T.. 2015 Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf. Journal of Marine Systems, 152. 51-63.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.07.006
Hyder, Kieran; Rossberg, Axel G.; Allen, J. Icarus; Austen, Melanie C.; Barciela, Rosa M.; Bannister, Hayley J.; Blackwell, Paul G.; Blanchard, Julia L.; Burrows, Michael T.; Defriez, Emma; Dorrington, Tarquin; Edwards, Karen P.; Garcia-Carreras, Bernardo; Heath, Michael R.; Hembury, Deborah J.; Heymans, Johanna J.; Holt, Jason; Houle, Jennifer E.; Jennings, Simon; Mackinson, Steve; Malcolm, Stephen J.; McPike, Ruaraidh; Mee, Laurence; Mills, David K.; Montgomery, Caron; Pearson, Dean; Pinnegar, John K.; Pollicino, Marilena; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Rae, Louise; Rogers, Stuart I.; Speirs, Douglas; Spence, Michael A.; Thorpe, Robert; Turner, R. Kerry; van der Molen, Johan; Yool, Andrew; Paterson, David M.. 2015 Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management. Marine Policy, 61. 291-302.10.1016/j.marpol.2015.07.015
Tinker, Jonathan; Lowe, Jason; Holt, Jason; Pardaens, Anne; Wiltshire, Andy. 2015 Validation of an ensemble modelling system for climate projections for the northwest European shelf seas. Progress in Oceanography, 138. 211-237.10.1016/j.pocean.2015.07.002
Luneva, Maria V.; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Harle, James D.; Holt, Jason T.. 2015 The effects of tides on the water mass mixing and sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120 (10). 6669-6699.10.1002/2014JC010310
Chust, Guillem; Icarus Allen, J.; Bopp, Laurent; Schrum, Corinna; Holt, Jason; Tsiaras, Kostas; Zavatarelli, Marco; Chifflet, Marina; Cannaby, Heather; Dadou, Isabelle; Daewel, Ute; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Machu, Eric; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Butenschon, Momme; Artioli, Yuri; Petihakis, George; Smith, Chris; Garçon, Veronique; Goubanova, Katerina; Le Vu, Briac; Fach, Bettina A.; Salihoglu, Baris; Clementi, Emanuela; Irigoien, Xabier. 2014 Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean. Global Change Biology, 20 (7). 2124-2139.10.1111/gcb.12562
Holt, J.; Schrum, C.; Cannaby, H.; Daewel, U.; Allen, I.; Artioli, Y.; Bopp, L.; Butenschon, M.; Fach, B.A.; Harle, J.; Pushpadas, D.; Salihoglu, B.; Wakelin, S.. 2014 Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems. Biogeosciences Discussions, 11 (2). 1909-1975.10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014
Glibert, Patricia M.; Icarus Allen, J.; Artioli, Yuri; Beusen, Arthur; Bouwman, Lex; Harle, James; Holmes, Robert; Holt, Jason. 2014 Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis. Global Change Biology, 20 (12). 3845-3858.10.1111/gcb.12662
Holt, Jason; Allen, J. Icarus; Anderson, Thomas R.; Brewin, Robert; Butenschon, Momme; Harle, James; Huse, Geir; Lehodey, Patrick; Lindemann, Christian; Memery, Laurent; Salihoglu, Baris; Senina, Inna; Yool, Andrew. 2014 Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to Fish and Coasts to Ocean. Progress in Oceanography, 129 (B). 285-313.10.1016/j.pocean.2014.04.024
St. John, M.A.; Barange, M.; Benway, H.; Flynn, K.J.; Holt, J.; Merino, G.; Martin, A.; Mitra, A.; Melle, W.; Sanders, R.; Trenkel, V.M.; Grigorov, I.; Hoffman, E.. 2014 Introduction to the BASIN Special Issue: State of art, past present a view to the future. Progress in Oceanography, 129 (B). 171-175.10.1016/j.pocean.2014.11.007
Hollowed, A.B.; Barange, M.; Beamish, R.J.; Brander, K.; Cochrane, K.; Drinkwater, K.; Foreman, M.G.G.; Hare, J.A.; Holt, J.; Ito, S.-i.; Kim, S.; King, J.R.; Loeng, H.; MacKenzie, B.R.; Mueter, F.J.; Okey, T.A.; Peck, M.A.; Radchenko, V.I.; Rice, J.C.; Schirripa, M.J.; Yatsu, A.; Yamanaka, Y.. 2013 Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70 (5). 1023-1037.10.1093/icesjms/fst081
O'dea, E.J.; Arnold, A.K.; Edwards, K.P.; Furner, R.; Hyder, P.; Martin, M.J.; Siddom, J.R.; Storkey, D.; While, J.; Holt, J.T.; Liu, H.. 2012 An operational ocean forecast system incorporating NEMO and SST data assimilation for the tidally driven European North-West shelf. Journal of Operational Oceanography, 5 (1). 3-17.
Artioli, Yuri; Blackford, Jeremy C.; Butenschön, Momme; Holt, Jason T.; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Thomas, Helmuth; Borges, Alberto V.; Allen, J. Icarus. 2012 The carbonate system in the North Sea: Sensitivity and model validation. Journal of Marine Systems, 102-104. 1-13.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.04.006
Blanchard, Julia L.; Jennings, Simon; Holmes, Robert; Harle, James; Merino, Gorka; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Barange, Manuel. 2012 Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367 (1605). 2979-2989.10.1098/rstb.2012.0231
Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Harle, James; Holmes, Robert; Allen, Icarus; Allison, Edward H.; Badjeck, Marie Caroline; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Holt, Jason; Jennings, Simon; Mullon, Christian; Rodwell, Lynda D.. 2012 Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate? Global Environmental Change, 22 (4). 795-806.10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.003
Wakelin, S.L.; Holt, J.T.; Blackford, J.C.; Allen, J.I.; Butenschön, M.; Artioli, Y.. 2012 Modeling the carbon fluxes of the northwest European continental shelf: Validation and budgets. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117 (C5). C05020.10.1029/2011JC007402
Holt, Jason; Hughes, Sarah; Hopkins, Joanne; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Holliday, N. Penny; Dye, Stephen; González-Pola, César; Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre; Mork, Kjell Arne; Nolan, Glen; Proctor, Roger; Read, Jane; Shammon, Theresa; Sherwin, Toby; Smyth, Tim; Tattersall, Graham; Ward, Ben; Wiltshire, Karen Helen. 2012 Multi-decadal variability and trends in the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: A model-data synthesis. Progress in Oceanography, 106. 96-117.10.1016/j.pocean.2012.08.001
Postlethwaite, C. F.; Morales Maqueda, M. A.; Le Fouest, V.; Tattersall, G. R.; Holt, J.; Willmott, A. J.. 2011 The effect of tides on dense water formation in Arctic shelf seas. Ocean Science, 7 (2). 203-217.10.5194/os-7-203-2011
Allen, J. Icarus; Aiken, James; Anderson, Thomas R.; Buitenhuis, Erik; Cornell, Sarah; Geider, Richard J.; Haines, Keith; Hirata, Takafumi; Holt, Jason; Le Quere, Corinne; Hardman-Mountford, Nicholas; Ross, Oliver N.; Sinha, Bablu; While, James. 2010 Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: The MarQUEST experience. Journal of Marine System, 81 (1-2). 19-33.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.017
Holt, J.; Wakelin, S.; Lowe, J.; Tinker, J.. 2010 The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrography of the northwest European continental shelf. Progress in Oceanography, 86 (3-4). 361-379.10.1016/j.pocean.2010.05.003
Blackford, J.; Jones, N.; Proctor, Roger; Holt, Jason; Widdicombe, S.; Lowe, D.; Rees, A.. 2009 An initial assessment of the potential environmental impact of CO2 escape from marine carbon capture and storage systems. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part a-Journal of Power and Energy, 223 (A3). 269-280.10.1243/09576509JPE623
Burrows, R.; Walkington, I. A.; Yates, N. C.; Hedges, T. S.; Li, M.; Zhou, J. G.; Chen, D. Y.; Wolf, J.; Holt, J.; Proctor, R.. 2009 Tidal energy potential in UK waters. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Maritime Engineering, 162 (4). 155-164.10.1680/maen.2009.162.4.155
Badin, G.; Williams, R. G; Holt, J.; Fernand, L. J.. 2009 Are mesoscale eddies in shelf seas formed by baroclinic instability of tidal fronts? Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 114, C10021. 18, pp.
Burrows, R.; Walkington, I.A.; Yates, N.C.; Hedges, T.S.; Wolf, J.; Holt, J.. 2009 The tidal range energy potential of the West Coast of the United Kingdom. Applied Ocean Research, 31 (4). 229-238.10.1016/j.apor.2009.10.002
Holt, J.; Harle, J.; Proctor, R.; Michel, S.; Ashworth, M.; Batstone, C.; Allen, I.; Holmes, R.; Smyth, T.; Haines, K.; Bretherton, D.; Smith, G.. 2009 Modelling the global coastal ocean. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 367 (1890). 939-951.10.1098/rsta.2008.0210
Wolf, J.; Walkington, I. A.; Holt, J.; Burrows, R.. 2009 Environmental impacts of tidal power schemes. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Maritime Engineering, 162 (4). 165-177.10.1680/maen.2009.162.4.165
Huthnance, J.M.; Holt, J.T.; Wakelin, S.L.. 2009 Deep ocean exchange with west-European shelf seas. Ocean Science, 5. 621-634.10.5194/os-5-621-2009
Blackford, J. C.; Jones, N.; Proctor, R.; Holt, J. T.. 2008 Regional scale impacts of distinct CO2 additions in the North Sea. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 56 (8). 1461-1468.10.1016/j.marpolbul.2008.04.048
Hardman-Mountford, N.J.; Moore, G.; Bakker, D.C.E.; Watson, A.J.; Schuster, U.; Barciela, R.; Hines, A.; Moncoiffe, G.; Brown, J.; Dye, S.; Blackford, J.; Somerfield, P.J.; Holt, J.; Hydes, D.J.; Aiken, J.. 2008 An operational monitoring system to provide indicators of CO2-related variables in the ocean. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65 (8). 1498-1503.10.1093/icesjms/fsn110
Hill, A.E.; Brown, J.; Fernand, L.; Holt, J.T.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Proctor, R.; Raine, R.; Turrell, W.R.. 2008 Thermohaline circulation of shallow tidal seas. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (11), L11605. 10.1029/2008GL033459
Holt, Jason; Proctor, Roger; Ashworth, Mike. 2007 High-resolution modelling of the Northwest European shelf seas using POLCOMS. Capability Computing, 10 (Autumn). 8-9, 11.
Holt, M.; Hyder, P.; Siddorn, J.; O'Dae, E.; Mahdon, R.; Proctor, R.; Holt, J.; Wakelin, S.; Allen, I. 2007 Evaluating the performance of real-time forecast models of the NW European shelf seas. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 9 (05734). 1, pp.
Holt, J.; Umlauf, L.. 2007 Modelling the tidal mixing fronts of the northwest European continental shelf. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 9 (08479). 1, pp.
Young, E. F; Holt, J. T.. 2007 Prediction and analysis of long-term variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (C1). Art. No. C01008.10.1029/2005JC003386
Wakelin, S.; Holt, J.; Proctor, R.; Smyth, T. J.; Blackford, J.; Allen, I.; Ashworth, M. I.. 2007 Modelling the inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes and budgets on the northwest European continental shelf. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 9 (08864). 1, pp.
Andreu-Burillo, I.; Holt, J. T.; Proctor, R.; Annan, J. D.; James, I. D.; Prandle, D.. 2007 Assimilation of sea surface temperature in the POL Coastal Ocean Modelling System. Journal of Marine Systems, 65 (1-4). 27-40.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.09.017
Siddorn, J.R.; Allen, J.I.; Blackford, J.C.; Gilbert, F.J.; Holt, J. T.; Holt, M.W.; Osborne, J.P.; Proctor, R.; Mills, D.K.. 2007 Modelling the hydrodynamics and ecosystem of the North-West European continental shelf for operational oceanography. Journal of Marine Systems, 65 (1-4). 417-429.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.01.018

Book section

Schrum, Corinna; Lowe, Jason; Meier, H.E. Markus; Grabemann, Iris; Holt, Jason; Mathis, Moritz; Pohlmann, Thomas; Skogen, Morten D.; Sterl, Andreas; Wakelin, Sarah. 2016 Projected change - North Sea. In: Quante, Markus ; Colijn , Franciscus , (eds.)North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment. Cham, Springer International, 175-218, 528pp. (Regional Climate Studies).
Sharples, J.; Holt, J.; Dye, S.. 2013 Impacts of climate change on shelf sea stratification. In: Baxter, J.M.; Buckley, P.J.; Wallace, C.J., (eds.)Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership Science Review 2013. Lowestoft, UK, MCCIP Secretariat, 67-70.
Barange, M.; Allen, I.; Allison, E.; Badject, M-C.; Blanchard, J.; Drakeford, B.; Dulvy, N.K.; Harle, J.; Holmes, R.; Holt, J.; Jennings, S.; Lowe, J.; Merino, G.; Mullon, C.; Pilling, G.; Rodwell, L.; Tompkins, E.; Werner, F.. 2011 Predicting the Impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries: The QUEST_Fish Framework. In: Ommer, R.E.; Perry, I.; Cochrane, K.L.; Cury, P., (eds.)World Fisheries: a social-ecological analysis. Oxford, UK, Wiley-Blackwell, 29-59, 440pp.
Amoudry, Laurent, O.; Souza, Alejandro, J.; Holt, Jason, T.. 2009 Sediment transport module for a B-grid coastal shelf ocean model. In: Mizuguchi, Masara; Sato, Shinji, (eds.)Proceedings of Coastal Dynamics 2009, 6th International Conference on Coastal Dynamics. Japan, World Scientific, Paper 88, 10pp.
Souza, Alejandro J.; Holt, Jason T.; Proctor, Roger. 2007 Modelling SPM on the NW European shelf seas. In: Balson, P.S.; Colins, M.B., (eds.)Coastal and shelf sediment transport. London, Geological Society, 147-158.
Proctor, Roger; Howarth, Johh; Knight, Philip J.; Holt, Jason T.; Siddorn, John; Mills, David K.. 2006 The Liverpool Bay Coastal Observatory — Analysis of Seasonal Cycles. In: Spaulding, Malcolm, (ed.)Estuarine and Coastal Modeling (2005). American Society of Civil Engineers, 696-713.


Holt, Jason; New, Adrian; Liu, Hedong; Coward, Andrew; Pickles, Stephen; Ashworth, Mike. 2013 Next generation ocean dynamical core roadmap project: summary and recommendations. Report for the NERC Ocean Roadmap exercise. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 8pp. (UNSPECIFIED)
Holt, Jason; New, Adrian; Liu, Hedong; Coward, Andrew; Pickles, Stephen; Ashworth, Mike. 2013 Next generation ocean dynamical core roadmap project: final report. Report for the NERC Ocean Roadmap exercise. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 39pp. (UNSPECIFIED)
Zavatarelli, M.; Artioli, Y.; Beecham, J.; Butenschon, M.; Chifflet, M.; Christiensen, A.; Chust, G.; Daewel, U.; Holt, J.; Neuenfeldt, S.; Schrum, C.; Skogen, M.; Wakelin, S.; Allen, J.I.. 2013 Synthesis report on the comparison of WP3 and WP4 simulations: Part 2a Multiple Driver Scenarios, NE Atlantic, North Sea, Baltic Sea and Biscay. MEECE Deliverable 4.3. Plymouth, MEECE Project/Plymouth Marine Laboratory, 53pp. (UNSPECIFIED)
Wakelin, S.; Daewel, D.; Schrum, C.; Holt, J.; Butenschon, M.; Artioli, Y.; Beecham, J.; Lynam, C.; Mackinson, S.. 2013 Synthesis report for Climate Simulations Part 3: NE Atlantic / North Sea 2013 MEECE Deliverable D3.4. Plymouth, MEECE Project/Plymouth Marine Laboratory, 82pp. (UNSPECIFIED)
Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom; Pardaens, Anne; Tinker, Jonathon; Holt, Jason; Wakelin, Sarah; Milne, Glenn; Leake, James; Wolf, Judith; Horsburgh, Kevin; Reeder, Tim; Jenkins, Geoff; Ridley, Jeff; Dye, Stephen; Bradley, Sarah. 2009 UK Climate Projections Science Report: Marine and Coastal Projections. Exeter, UK, Met Office Hadley Centre, 99pp. (UNSPECIFIED)

Electronic output

Luneva, Maria; Harle, James; Holt, Jason. 2013 Arctic Ocean modelling. [Output (Electronic)]

Conference item

Amoudry, Laurent O; Souza, Alejandro J; Holt, Jason T. 2009 Sediment transport module for a B-grid coastal ocean model. In: Proceedings of Coastal Dynamics 2009: impacts of human activities on dynamic coastal processes, Tokyo. World Scientific.