Dr Adam Blaker

Marine Systems Modelling
+44 (0)23 8059 6312

I am currently working on MESO-CLIP, a NERC funded project to study the effect of mesoscale ocean eddies on climate predictability.

Recently I have also worked on the RAPID-VALOR and RAPID-RAPIT projects. Under RAPID-VALOR we are using NEMO ORCA025 to better understand the variability and potential predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in collaboration with partners at the UK Met Office, the University of Reading and ECMWF. Under RAPID-RAPIT we are working towards quantifying uncertainty in climate predictions, by rigorously exploring the uncertainty in climate simulations. In collaboration with statisticians from Durham University, and climate scientists from the University of Reading, the Met Office and CPDN (climateprediction.net) we are running multi-thousand member ensembles of HadCM3, the UK Met Office's coupled climate model, and construction emulators to better understand the uncertainties associated with model parameter choices. Previously I worked on the RAPID UK THCMIP project, completing a series of IPCC model integrations using the coupled climate models FORTE and CHIME. I also have a keen interest in teleconnections within the climate system, which was one aspect of my PhD.



Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Joanne; Blaker, Adam; Coward, Andrew; Stepanov, Vladimir. 2018 A window on the deep ocean: The special value of ocean bottom pressure for monitoring the large-scale, deep-ocean circulation. Progress in Oceanography, 161. 19-46.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.01.011
Sinha, B.; Smeed, D.A.; McCarthy, G.; Moat, B.I.; Josey, S.A.; Hirschi, J.J.-M.; Frajka-Williams, E.; Blaker, A.T.; Rayner, D.; Madec, G.. 2018 The accuracy of estimates of the overturning circulation from basin-wide mooring arrays. Progress in Oceanography, 160. 101-123.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2017.12.001
Williamson, Daniel; Blaker, Adam T.; Sinha, Bablu. 2017 Tuning without over-tuning: parametric uncertainty quantification for the NEMO ocean model. Geoscientific Model Development, 10 (4). 1789-1816.10.5194/gmd-10-1789-2017
Moat, B.I.; Josey, S.A.; Sinha, B.; Blaker, A.T.; Smeed, D.A.; McCarthy, G.; Johns, W.E.; Hirschi, J.-M.; Frajka-Williams, E.; Rayner, D.; Duchez, A.; Coward, A.C.. 2016 Major variations in subtropical North Atlantic heat transport at short (5 day) timescales and their causes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (5). 3237-3249.10.1002/2016JC011660
Marzocchi, Alice; Hirschi, Joël J.-M.; Holliday, N. Penny; Cunningham, Stuart A.; Blaker, Adam T.; Coward, Andrew C.. 2015 The North Atlantic subpolar circulation in an eddy-resolving global ocean model. Journal of Marine Systems, 142. 126-143.10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.10.007
Williamson, Daniel; Blaker, Adam T.; Hampton, Charlotte; Salter, James. 2015 Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching. Climate Dynamics, 45 (5). 1299-1324.10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z
Marsh, R.; Ivchenko, V.O.; Skliris, N.; Alderson, S.; Bigg, G.R.; Madec, G.; Blaker, A.T.; Aksenov, Y.; Sinha, B.; Coward, A.C.; Le Sommer, J.; Merino, N.; Zalesny, V.B.. 2015 NEMO–ICB (v1.0): interactive icebergs in the NEMO ocean model globally configured at eddy-permitting resolution. Geoscientific Model Development, 8 (5). 1547-1562.10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015
Blaker, A.T.; Hirschi, J.J- M.; McCarthy, G.; Sinha, B.; Taws, S.; Marsh, R.; de Cuevas, B.A.; Alderson, S.G.; Coward, A.C.. 2015 Historical analogues of the recent extreme minima observed in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26°N. Climate Dynamics, 44 (1-2). 457-473.10.1007/s00382-014-2274-6
Williamson, Daniel; Blaker, Adam T.. 2014 Evolving Bayesian Emulators for Structured Chaotic Time Series, with Application to Large Climate Models. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 2 (1). 1-28.10.1137/120900915
Grist, Jeremy P.; Josey, Simon A.; Marsh, Robert; Kwon, Young-Oh; Bingham, Rory J.; Blaker, Adam T.. 2014 The Surface-Forced Overturning of the North Atlantic: Estimates from Modern Era Atmospheric Reanalysis Datasets. Journal of Climate, 27 (10). 3596-3618.10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00070.1
Duchez, A.; Hirschi, J.J.-M.; Blaker, A.T.; Bryden, H.L.; de Cuevas, B.; Atkinson, C.P.; McCarthy, G.D.; Frajka-Williams, E.; Rayner, D.; Smeed, D; Cunningham, S.A.; Mizielinski, M.S.. 2014 A new index for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N. Journal of Climate, 27 (17). 6439.-6455.10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00052.1
Desbruyeres, D.G.; McDonagh, E.L.; King, B.A.; Garry, F.K.; Blaker, A.T.; Moat, B.; Mercier, H.. 2014 Full-depth temperature trends in the Northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (22). 7971-7979.10.1002/2014GL061844
Drijfhout, S.S.; Blaker, A.T.; Josey, S.A.; Nurser, A.J.G.; Sinha, B.; Balmaseda, M.A.. 2014 Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (22). 7868-7874.10.1002/2014GL061456
Buchan, Jian; Hirschi, Joel; Blaker, Adam; Sinha, Bablu. 2014 North Atlantic SST anomalies and the cold North European weather events of winter 2009/10 and December 2010. Monthly Weather Review, 142 (2). 922-932.10.1175/MWR-D-13-00104.1
Williamson, Daniel; Goldstein, Michael; Allison, Lesley; Blaker, Adam; Challenor, Peter; Jackson, Laura; Yamazaki, Kuniko. 2013 History matching for exploring and reducing climate model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics ensemble. Climate Dynamics, 41 (7-8). 1703-1729.10.1007/s00382-013-1896-4
Hirschi, J.J.-M.; Blaker, A.T.; Sinha, B.; Coward, A.; de Cuevas, B.; Alderson, S.; Madec, G.. 2013 Chaotic variability of the meridional overturning circulation on subannual to interannual timescales. Ocean Science, 9 (5). 805-823.10.5194/os-9-805-2013
Sévellec, Florian; Hirschi, Joel J.-M.; Blaker, Adam T.. 2013 On the Near-Inertial Resonance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43 (12). 2661-2672.10.1175/JPO-D-13-092.1
Zika, Jan D.; Le Sommer, Julien; Dufour, Carolina O.; Naveira-Garabato, Alberto; Blaker, Adam. 2013 Acceleration of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current by Wind Stress along the Coast of Antarctica. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43 (12). 2772-2784.10.1175/JPO-D-13-091.1
Ivchenko, V.O.; Sinha, B.; Zalesny, V.B.; Marsh, R.; Blaker, A.T.. 2013 Influence of bottom topography on integral constraints in zonal flows with parameterized potential vorticity fluxes. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43 (2). 311-323.10.1175/JPO-D-12-0126.1
Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rowlands, Daniel J.; Aina, Tolu; Blaker, Adam T.; Bowery, Andy; Massey, Neil; Miller, Jonathan; Rye, Cameron; Tett, Simon F. B.; Williamson, Daniel; Yamazaki, Yasuhiro H.; Allen, Myles R.. 2013 Obtaining diverse behaviors in a climate model without the use of flux adjustments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (7). 2781-2793.10.1002/jgrd.50304
Sinha, Bablu; Topliss, Brenda; Blaker, Adam Tobias; Hirschi, Joel Jean-Marie. 2013 A numerical model study of the effects of interannual timescale wave propagation on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118 (1). 131-146.10.1029/2012JC008334
Blaker, Adam T.; Hirschi, Joël J-M.; Sinha, Bablu; de Cuevas, Beverly; Alderson, Steven; Coward, Andrew; Madec, Gurvan. 2012 Large near-inertial oscillations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Modelling, 42. 50-56.10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.11.008
Persechino, A.; Marsh, R.; Sinha, B.; Megann, A.P.; Blaker, A.T.; New, A.L.. 2012 Decadal-timescale changes of the Atlantic overturning circulation and climate in a coupled climate model with a hybrid-coordinate ocean component. Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4). 1021-1042.10.1007/s00382-012-1432-y
Sinha, Bablu; Blaker, Adam T.; Hirschi, Joël J.-M.; Bonham, Sarah; Brand, Matthew; Josey, Simon A.; Smith, Robin S.; Marotzke, Jochem. 2012 Mountain ranges favour vigorous Atlantic meridional overturning. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (2). L02705.10.1029/2011GL050485
Williamson, Daniel; Goldstein, Michael; Blaker, Adam. 2012 Fast linked analyses for scenario-based hierarchies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics), 61 (5). 665-691.10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01042.x
Balan Sarojini, B.; Gregory, J.M.; Tailleux, R.; Bigg, G.R.; Blaker, A.T.; Cameron, D.R.; Edwards, N.R.; Megann, A.P.; Shaffery, L.C.; Sinha, B.. 2011 High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Science, 7. 471-486.10.5194/os-7-471-2011
Megann, A.P.; New, A.L.; Blaker, A.T.; Sinha, B.. 2010 The sensitivity of a coupled climate model to its ocean component. Journal of Climate, 23 (19). 5126-5150.10.1175/2010JCLI3394.1
Atkinson, C.P.; Wells, N.C.; Blaker, A.T.; Sinha, B.; Ivchenko, V.O.. 2009 Rapid ocean wave teleconnections linking Antarctic salinity anomalies to the equatorial ocean?atmosphere system. Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L08603.10.1029/2008GL036976
Grist, Jeremy P.; Josey, Simon A.; Sinha, Bablu; Blaker, Adam T.. 2008 Response of the Denmark Strait overflow to Nordic Seas heat loss. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (C9). C09019.10.1029/2007JC004625
Blaker, A.T.; Sinha, B.; Ivchenko, V.O.; Wells, N.C.; Zalesny, V.B.. 2006 Identifying the roles of the ocean and atmosphere in creating a rapid equatorial response to a Southern Ocean anomaly. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (6). L06720-[4pp].https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025474

Conference item

Moat, Ben; Josey, Simon; Sinha, Bablu; Blaker, Adam; Smeed, David; McCarthy, Gerard; Johns, William; Hirschi, Joel; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor; Rayner, Darren; Duchez, Aurelie; Coward, Andrew. 2016 Major variations in sub-tropical North Atlantic heat transport at short timescales: causes and consequences. In: EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria, 17-22 Apr 2016. (Unpublished)